Dear reader

This is a letter or blog that I am writing to view my view on this GE13 and my main point is “Why I still feel that GE14 is the one that will be the real change and that the one that will bring down the BN controlled government –not GE13”.

I congratulated PRK on the hard work and determination and the huge amount of support even from fence sitter like myself. Voting is our right and that was the main reason for GE13.  However I will go to my reason for my statement and I hope u will give me that time to listen.

Why BN will not fall?

Although this GE 13 will go down in history as the closeness’ ever election since our independence however it is still not enough to topple the BN controlled government for some of the following:

1.       BN still has the number –or the upper hand –meaning it is a number game (whether they are phantom voter or etc) I am basing on normal scenario – looking at 13 million population that is voting on May5th – even if sediment is very Pro-change or so called new government –you cannot dispute the fact there are a portion of population esp rural and also those working in the police or army and those civil servants or pensioner etc who are still BN not because they BN supporter but more so because it has being their bread and butter since Independence and passed from one generation and they are the type that do not like to change –eating the same rice and quite content with that.  Among those are workers or employees who works for BN companies or so called related company or even unrelated but has some element of BN friendly business even to mentioned has blood relationship like brother of the current PM, like CIMB or even PNB– workers there are not force to work but as an employee of such company –would want to vote against your bread and butter?  Would you want your boss to go bankrupt? Where is my next pay check? So that problem still lies there –it is not enough employee who are willing to say –hell with this –I want change and vote the BN out –then on next week –my employer who has many BN supported project riding on the election result and also on BN supported contract would it be there once BN no longer in control –definitely the project will be review and then cut back and scale down and then finally maybe salary or other peak are also cut.  It is trigger economic model.    This percentage are still a numbers to reckon with –although not as huge as you might think but enough to swing in favour of BN.  This is where their number game are on their side.  – that is why I believe –the number game and the number are in favour of BN.  Why this would change in 2018 –it is because of 2 reasons – with the additional of 3 more millions voters in 2018 and also an most important event that will happen before 2018.  Let say – by then – something happen to Malaysia – 2017/2018 right before election GE14 – our nation declared bankruptcy like Greece and required IMF help and then those people who were or thought that working under BN or indirect or direct companies –suddenly find themselves out of jobs and living on zero income....that suddenly changed their behaviour toward their employers –who thought that BN will not bankrupt.  And those who voted in 2013 will regards since such event happened and they felt betrayed –that numbers sudden swing and mentally shifted from within their own people even their own UMNO members etc –that is sufficient to warren a shift.  Of course when that happen confidence in BN governing will be out the window –so change will happen naturally without much effort in GE14.  Human being are always and has always being that way since beginning of time –only when something bad happened then they will wake up and smell the coffee even by then no more coffee to smell.  Human will change only if suddenly bad things happened to them.

2.       As mentioned I have already list 2 reasons in the above point –there is another you see in GE13 –the result was very close so close that BN still win –but with that confidence within BN leaders remain low – and create in fiction or in fight and power struggle like 2008 when then PM was ask to resign and with this result the current PM is also under pressure to step down due to a poorer showing than 2008 – also in PRK –the leadership issue also come in play where opposition leader stepping down.  With both current leaders each from BN and opposition – it created a new beginning –one with no baggage –even if BN has a better person to lead or a new PM – more likely a weaker one also then in GE14 the field is even and people will vote on party rather than individual.

3.       Additional point to add is that there will be an emergence of a new political climate or party that will embark on a single party platform in 2018 as they can see that Malaysia is ready and mature for such.  Coalition can still work but eventually like partners it is will have to part ways.  I believed a single party that cater and as a single entity will definitely get my vote in 2018 if it cater across the board. Why not we are Malaysia and not race based. DAP is still very Chinese and PAS vice versa.  It is the ideology and belief that is important –i reckon with such a single party –this is one way 2018 will prevail.  When this party is formed –people from DAP and PAS and rest will joined and formed in a single party and believed in one cause.  However – it is no longer consider a coalition party (ties) make up of 3 but a single entity – of course the head is a Malay and then the rest committee are representation of the rest –u might argue what make it differ than now –well it is same principle as having one school instead of having Chinese school etc after all why should be still use race as issue? Having a Chinese to continue Chinese language –you can still does that in a unified school – integration is the way not segregation....the more you have our own things the more distance we are ......University –there is no segregation why?  U see a Chinese university or Malay university –well there is currently due to current government policy. 

Although there are others minor points to bring up but these 2-3 main points is enough reasons to back my theory (after theories can be wrong and proven wrong).

But as far as the numbers game is concern and the mathematic theory these are the fact of life and with math and statistic is or what make the world work.  No matter how you want to tell the story –when you have a math of adding numbers of 1 + 1 it will always come to 2 and there will not be a 2 ½ etc.  Just to look at the math or stat as a whole –look at area for example in certain area even in Sarawak etc ...let look at Johor (a recent report came out by FMT) this is what or roughly the same stat that I agreed with –this is not about who you vote for –it is the numbers in your area that you are running or etc. In Pulai Johor like the article mentioned there are 100k voters –where in most area are similar to this –Malay are majority with Chinese and other races consider swing vote and like article mentioned even if you have all Chinese and other races voting against BN – BN will still win even if it 800 votes –that is still a win no doubt right .....it is not easy to change someone who has many generation grew up with BN and there are those who after all their MP really does do solved their problem –remember not all BN MP are bad it is the party they happen to represent or the head –just like in any organization the head is bad so the culture of the organization is like that –but still some MP are working . 

Also with the above example – esp with PAS – people esp Malay can compared since PAS took Kelantan for many years and yet no changes and no improvement to the Malays and most Malay immigrated from Kelantan to find work elsewhere like Johor etc (this is same situation under BN for Sarawak).  So voters are not stupid –they know –they can compared with current BN and PAS – not DAP or others but PAS and BN – although people want change –they want for the better and not for the worst and PAS is something that remain even worse than BN ......if Kelantan was well managed like Selangor or Penang –i think you will have favourable Malays swing and only need to concentrated on those BN “brainwashed” or BN raised voters –these are not members but because of generation of support they are reluctant to change – these are people I mentioned only when their livelihood is threaten will they change voluntarily –you can force these group to change overnite nor just because you are right –make you right or make them change ....there are no right or wrong for these people but because they are loyal to their BN –only when these loyalty is broken and in time –good will prevail that is why no matter how many years opposition tried and never give up –they will prevail –it is when –time etc

That is why I see the GE14 is the time and will be the year that change of government – nature law will always prevail and you cannot force nature no matter how great mankind are –we are not immoral nor god –we can influence human but not control nor we cannot control mother nature.  Thing happen for reason beyond mankind.  Yes –we can take control and decided to make change –easy for some –not easy for other –every human think differ and has differ agenda –if everyone think the same –do you think BN will win or Opposition would lose?  There will be always be lawyer and taxi driver in this world – winner and loser – Opposition and Pro etc that is what make human unique – like going back to point – based on Statistic – it is still a number game –unless you can mind control all the voters in Pulai in Johor –BN will still win even if it is by 100 votes –it is still a win even if the majority is small.  In election –it is about wining even if it is by 1 vote.  So with 222 – BN will still cover it poker hand with enough to scrap thru –this is the fact and the statistics.  You need an event or disaster to happen and caused by BN to band together every citizen or voter in Malaysia to united then only change will happen – look at Sarawak there are 31 seats – expected 8 seats will be winnable for opposition –why –because urban area – where some place Chinese majority –and some area are most informed about voting –are voting against BN but the rest of 22 seat remain in BN hand and their strategy is always the same –rural folk .....they have mostly given up on urban and no point of them giving free dinner at these as the majority are already had their mind set and it would be a waste of money to even tried to change these area but whereas rural folk –buying their stomach and heart is not hard to do.  These are simple folk as I know when you visited them at their kampong  -not to say they can be bribe easily but what I am saying –you do not go to their kampong and start tell them BN is bad or this and that etc –that is like going some home after they invited you and start tell them the house they bought is not good and should forego their owner or the developer etc .